On January 4th 2009, I wrote the following predictions for 2009! I added this text now, with what really happened!
1.) Mobile Platforms
Prediction on January 4th 2009:
The Next Genaration iPhone bring apple to 90% Markt Share in the Smart Phone Market. Users state, the key reason for buy it is the superior usability of the operating system. In other words: The Lack of Mobile Killer Applications, is not the missing software, but the poor usability of phones in the past!
What happened?
Apple did not manage to get 90% market share, but has significant smart phone market share. Motorla, Sony Ericison, and Nokia are in full retreat. Their current platforms do not allow them to play on that level. Especially Nokia has been hard hit with their very dated existing operating system platform a catch seems not feasible.
Microsoft has been not managed to stem the slide of their market share. While they are still a player, but Windows Mobile is on the down cycle.
BlackBerry and Google are pushing very strongly to remain competitive or even unseat Apple from the throne. This will be the race to watch in 2010.
2.) Open Source at Fortune 500
Prediction on January 4th 2009:
500 of the Fortune 500 are using Open Source Software for then 50% of their software needs. Desktop OS, Data Center Software, Middleware, Phone Systems, CRM and so on. The Economic crisis proved to be the most successful and defining moment for Open Source!
What happened?
Open Source clearly improved its global reach and positioning. The financial crisis clearly made this the year of open source. Red Hat significant - also financial - success and other projects increased adoption rate is just shocking. It pushed Oracle into buying Sun Microsystems, to make sure there is a commercial Java / SOA left to discuss market share for.
The race in 2010 will be on the business associated software, such as ERP, CRM, BI, DWH, etc. Here will be the next frontier for Open Source. The other areas can be counted as "won."
3.) Top Software Companies do Open Source
Prediction on January 4th 2009:
Top 3 software Companies are now each a key backer in at least one Open Source Platform.
What happened?
This is an interesting one. Oracle went for Sun Microsystems and Microsoft has a open source market places and is one of the largest Linux retailers (partnership with Novel). The list is going, such as with Nokia open sourcing Symbian its (dated) phone operating system, Google (is there anything commercial and closed source there?), etc.
4.) The Financial Meltdown boost Open Source
Prediction on January 4th 2009:
Hacked: The Economic Down spiral, spiraled Open Source Up! The Missing Business Model for Open Source has been defined!
What happened?
Without any doubt this happened!Red Hat, Novel, Oracle, Microsoft, etc.
5.) Fast Booting Laptops
Prediction on January 4th 2009:
New Laptop Features: Instant on - 3 seconds to boot!
What happened?
Again, funny enough: Google OS has exactly this feature and goal and is in beta currently!!
The trend of smaller and lighter operating systems is clear and the software vendors clearly heard ongoing demands of users. Especially, the trend of netbooks pushed this features. Some netbooks don't even have a hard drive and are using dynamic rom and ram chips. Natrually, the question why don't we hav fast booting operating systems / computers in general.
Micrsoft had to literally drop the VISTA Operating System, because it completely has been developed into the old model (bigger and slower) - somehow like the US car manufacturers going into the economic crisis. Now, Microsoft kept allowing PC Manufacturers to downgrade from Vista to XP (most of these have support documents for this case) and at the same time MS did push for a faster introduction date of Windows 7.
While Microsoft looks proactive, the success of fast booting Linux and Google OS really pushed the strategy.
Linux and Google pushed the 7 respecitvely 3 second booting and Apple went to a 50/60% booting reduction with the Snow Leopard Release this year.
Please see 2010/2011 trends here: www.axelwinter.com/predictions2010